Market indicators continue to predict a rise in LED usage across applications,
with lighting leading the way in LED applications with a predicted increase of
20% over 2010. The total package revenue for Backlight and lighting applications was $7.2
billion in 2010 and is forecast to reach $12.7 billion in 2014. A heightened
demand for LED lighting applications is the main driver of this dramatic
increase.
Fortunately, suppliers have taken note of these trends and have
planned for increased capacity in the future. In 2011, reserachers predict
global LED capacity will reach 180 billion units, and by 2013 will reach 227
billion.
While overall LED demand continues to rise, researchers are
seeing demand taper off in LED backlights and begin to trend more in the
direction of LED lighting. Due to high inventories and low sales for LED-backlit
LCD TVs in Q4’10, Q1’11and early Q2’11, LED backlight demand dropped slightly;
it is expected to pick up again and reach a maximum level in Q3’11 due to
seasonal demand.
Currently, LED backlights are used in all small/medium
LCDs, and LED backlight penetration in mobile PCs is nearly 100%. Penetration of
LED backlights in LCD monitors and LCD TVs continues to grow, while the number
of LED packages per set is decreasing. Total LED backlight demand will be 45.9
billion in 2011. Demand for LED-backlit LCD TVs has dominated the backlight
supply since 2010, accounting for nearly 50% of the total backlight demand. LED
demand from TVs will reach its maximum level in 2012, but then slightly drop
after 2013 due to a decrease in LEDs per unit.
Figure 1: Changes in LED Applications Over
Time
In terms of LED penetration in lighting
applications, researchers found the total average LED penetration in lighting
was 1.4% in 2010 and is forecast to reach 9.3% in 2014. There is high
penetration in spot lights due to halogen replacements, and government policies
are expected to accelerate LED penetration in street lights after 2011. Total
LED lighting demand was 3.2 billion in Q2’11, and researchers predict that
demand will quickly increase to 3.4 billion in Q3’11.
Sales of LED street
lights are increasing due to government support. China will be the biggest
market for LED street lights in 2011 due to government policies. The country’s
market share in 2011 is 55%, but will slightly decline to 50% in 2014. The share
of LED street lights by area will not change very much from 2011 to
2014.
Figure 2: LED Lighting Penetration Forecast
LED Lighting
Forecast by Region- Japan is the biggest market for LED bulbs in
2011. The country’s market share is 63% in 2011, but is forecast to decline to
40% in 2014. Japan has high LED adoption in lighting due to electrical power
limitations and energy-saving efforts. The country will remain the biggest
lighting market until 2014.
- LED bulb growth in China, North America and Europe
will be higher than other areas from 2011 to 2014.
- Korea was the top LED supply country in 2010.
- Taiwan will
take over as the top LED supply country after 2011.
- China is
the wild card for LED supply, with a great deal of investment in LED
production.
The top three suppliers in
Q2’ 11 based on 500x500 Chip size were S-LED, LGIT, and Epistar.
While market growth will be high over the next several years,
LED suppliers without cost competitiveness and correct strategy will face big
challenges. A surplus will intensify competition and lead to dramatic price
drops in 2011, causing higher LED adoption rates in lighting.
The
Quarterly LED Supply/Demand Market Forecast Report analyzes supply and demand on
a quarterly basis for the entire LED industry. From chip prices to LED maker
roadmaps, this report gives a clear outlook and reliable forecast of LED
supply/demand, along with an analysis of the impacts on pricing. Forecasts in
this report include detailed backlight and lighting supply/demand, pricing cost
structure, prices and more.
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